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六月 5, 2023
Secretary Blinken’s speech on Russia’s Strategic Failure and Ukraine’s Secure Future
美国国务院
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芬兰赫尔辛基
赫尔辛基市政大厦
2023年6月2日
布林肯国务卿：谢谢您。非常感谢。是的，我很久没有体验过如此强烈的幸福感了。（笑声）
瓦尔蒂艾宁（Vartiainen）市长，感谢您在赫尔辛基（Helsinki）——在这座极其宏伟的市政大厦里接待我们。
还有米卡（Meekah），非常感谢您以及您的整个团队——芬兰国际事务研究所（Finnish Institute of International Affairs）的所有研究人员，感谢你们深化了外交领域的学术研究，并丰富了公众辩论。
我也很高兴我的朋友及合作伙伴佩卡·哈维斯托（Pekka Haavisto）今天与我们在一起。在过去这个真正具有历史性的一年里，我们一直如此密切地合作，我对您的出席表示感谢。
尊敬的各位来宾：两个月前，当芬兰国旗首次在北约总部上空升起时，我和我们的盟友们聚首于布鲁塞尔。内内斯托（Niinistö）总统宣布，我引用他的原话：“芬兰的军事不结盟时代已告结束。一个新时代开始了。“
这是一个一年多前还不可想象的巨变。俄罗斯对乌克兰发动全面入侵之前，每四个芬兰人中只有一个人支持加入北约。在俄罗斯全面入侵之后，每四个人中就有三个人支持加入。
对芬兰人来说，设想自己处于乌克兰人的境地并不难。1939年11月，苏联入侵芬兰，芬兰人民曾经历过这样的境况。
与普京总统对乌克兰的所谓 “特别行动“一样，苏联的所谓 “解放行动“也谎称是芬兰的挑衅导致入侵。
就像俄罗斯人看待基辅一样，苏联人相信他们会在几周内攻陷赫尔辛基——他们如此自信，以至于在冬季战争（Winter War）开始前就让德米特里·肖斯塔科维奇（Dmitri Shostakovich）为胜利阅兵式作曲。
就像普京在乌克兰一样，当斯大林未能击垮芬兰人顽强而坚定的抵抗时，他转而采取了恐怖战略：焚烧整个村庄，对如此众多的医院从空中进行轰炸，以致芬兰人开始在屋顶上覆盖红十字会的标志。
就像今天的数百万乌克兰难民一样，数十万芬兰人被苏联入侵逐出家园。他们中有两个名叫佩尔科（Pirkko）和亨利（Henri）的孩子，佩尔科和亨利的家人被疏散离开了在卡累利阿（Karelia）的家园。这两个孩子就是我们的东道主赫尔辛基市长的父母。
对许多芬兰人来说，1939年和2022年有着惊人的相似之处。这是发自肺腑的感觉。他们的感觉没有错。
芬兰人民明白，如果俄罗斯违反了《联合国宪章》（UN Charter）的核心原则——主权、领土完整和独立——如果俄罗斯在乌克兰这样做了，它也将危及芬兰人民自身的和平与安全。
我们也明白这一点。这就是为什么在2021年期间，当俄罗斯加大威胁基辅并在乌克兰边境集结越来越多的部队、坦克和飞机时，我们竭尽全力使莫斯科缓解其制造的危机，并通过外交方式解决问题。
拜登总统告诉普京总统，我们已准备好讨论共同关心的安全问题——这是我多次重申的信息——包括与拉夫罗夫（Lavrov）外长会面时。我们提出了减轻紧张局势的书面建议。我们与盟友和伙伴国家一起，利用每一个论坛——从北约–俄罗斯理事会（NATO-Russia Council）到欧安组织（OSCE），从联合国到我们的直接渠道——来努力防止战争。
在这些接触中，我们向莫斯科指出两条可能的路径。 一条是可以为乌克兰、俄罗斯和整个欧洲带来更大的安全的外交路径；而另一条则是将给俄罗斯政府带来严重后果的侵略之路。
拜登总统明确表示，无论普京总统选择哪条道路，我们都做好了准备。 如果俄罗斯选择战争，我们会做三件事：支持乌克兰，让俄罗斯付出沉重的代价，以及在团结盟友和伙伴实现这些目标的同时增强北约。
在战争乌云密布之际，我们向乌克兰提供了大量的军事、经济和人道主义援助。我们首先于2021年8月，然后于12 月，发送了军事装备以加强乌克兰的防御，其中包括标枪（Javelins）导弹和毒刺（Stingers）导弹。我们还部署了美国网络司令部（U.S. Cyber Command）的一个团队，帮助乌克兰加强其电网和其他关键基础设施，以抵御网络攻击。
我们准备了一系列前所未有的制裁措施、出口管制以及其他经济方面的代价，以便在俄罗斯全面入侵的情况下实施，给俄罗斯带来严重和即时的后果。
我们采取步骤毫不含糊地表明，我们和我们的盟友将履行捍卫北约每一寸领土的承诺。
我们通过不懈的努力来团结盟友和伙伴，帮助乌克兰自卫，让普京的战略目标不能得逞。
拜登总统从上任第一天起就专注于重建和重振美国的联盟和伙伴关系，他知道与那些和我们有共同利益和价值观的国家并肩努力时，我们会更加强大。
在俄罗斯入侵之前，我们通过与北约、欧盟、七国集团以及世界各地的其他盟友和伙伴共同协调我们针对可能发生的入侵的规划和战略，展示了这些伙伴关系的力量。
在2022年1月和2月的决定性的几周里，日益明显的是，再多的外交努力也无法改变普京总统的想法。他会选择战争。
因此，在2022年2月17日，我前往联合国安理会（United Nations Security Council）对全世界发出警示，俄罗斯即将对乌克兰发动全面入侵。
我列出了俄罗斯将会采取的步骤：首先制造借口，然后使用导弹、坦克、军队和网络攻击来打击包括基辅在内的预定目标，旨在推翻乌克兰民主选举产生的政府，并将作为一个独立国家的乌克兰从地图上抹去。
我们当时希望——我们当时希望——事实证明我们是错的。
但我们不幸言中。在我向安全理事会发出警示一周后，普京总统发动了入侵。来自各行各业的乌克兰人——士兵和公民、男性和女性、年轻人和老年人——勇敢地捍卫了自己的国家。
而美国与我们的盟友和伙伴一道，迅速、果断地采取行动，做到了我们说过要做的事：支持乌克兰，让俄罗斯付出代价，加强北约——所有这些都是与我们的盟友和伙伴一起完成的。
在我们的共同支持下，乌克兰做到了它说过要做的事：捍卫了自己的领土、自己的独立、自己的民主。
今天，我要阐述这一点，以及普京对乌克兰的侵略战争在战略上失败的许多其他方面，它极大地削弱了俄罗斯的实力、其利益及其未来的影响力。我还将分享我们对通向公正及持久的和平之路的愿景。
当我们审视普京总统的长期战略目标和目的时，毫无疑问的是：俄罗斯今天的状况比全面入侵之前要糟糕得多——无论是在军事上、经济上，还是在地缘政治上。
普京本想展示实力，结果却暴露了弱点。他本想制造分裂，结果却促成了团结。他本想阻止的事，却加速其发生。这个结果绝非偶然。这是乌克兰人民的勇气和团结，以及我们与合作伙伴为支持乌克兰而采取的深思熟虑、果断和迅速行动的直接结果。
首先，多年来，普京总统一直试图削弱及分裂北约，谎称北约对俄罗斯构成威胁。事实上，在2014年俄罗斯入侵克里米亚（Crimea）和东乌克兰之前，北约的态势反映了一个共同的信念，即欧洲不太可能发生冲突。冷战结束后，美国在欧洲的驻军人数已经大幅减少，从1989年的31.5万人减少到2013年底的6.1万人。许多欧洲国家的国防开支多年来一直在下降。当时北约的战略原则将俄罗斯标明为合作伙伴。
2014年俄罗斯入侵克里米亚和顿巴斯（Donbas）后，这种趋势开始逆转。盟国承诺将国内生产总值的2%用于国防，并向北约东翼新增驻军，以应对俄罗斯的侵略。俄罗斯全面入侵乌克兰以来，北约加速了自身转型——不是为了形成威胁，也不是因为北约要寻求冲突。北约始终是——而且仍然是——一个防御性联盟。但俄罗斯的侵略、威胁，及其剑拔弩张的核威胁迫使我们加强了威慑和防御。
俄罗斯全面入侵几个小时后，我们启动了北约的防御反应部队。在接下来的几周中，包括英国、德国、荷兰、丹麦、西班牙和法国在内的多个盟友迅速派遣了部队、飞机和舰艇加强了北约的东翼防线。我们将在北海和波罗的海巡航的舰船数量增加了一倍，并将该地区的战斗群数量增加了一倍。美国在波兰建立了第一个永久性军事存在。当然，北约也将芬兰增列为第31个盟国，并很快会将瑞典增列为第32个盟国。
在前往维尔纽斯（Vilnius）举行北约峰会之际，我们的共同信息明确无误：北约盟国致力于加强威慑和防御，更大和更明智的国防开支，加深与印太（Indo-Pacific）合作伙伴的关系。北约的大门向新成员敞开，并持续保持敞开。
俄罗斯的入侵也促使欧盟比以往任何时候都更多地与美国和北约一起合作。欧盟及其成员国向乌克兰提供了750多亿美元的军事、经济和人道主义援助，其中包括180亿美元的安全援助，用于提供防空系统、豹式坦克和弹药等。在与美国和其他伙伴的密切协调下，欧盟启动了有史以来最雄心勃勃的制裁措施，冻结了俄罗斯一半以上的主权资产。欧洲国家已接收了800多万乌克兰难民，其中大多数不仅获得了政府提供的公共服务，还获得了工作和学习的权利。
其次，莫斯科几十年来一直竭力加重欧洲对俄罗斯石油和天然气的依赖。自普京总统全面入侵以来，欧洲已经迅速而果断地摆脱俄罗斯能源。柏林立即取消了会使俄罗斯向德国输送的天然气翻倍的北溪二号（Nord Stream 2）计划。
在普京入侵之前，欧洲国家37%的天然气是从俄罗斯进口的。在不到一年的时间里，欧洲已经将其减少了一半以上。2022年，欧盟国家通过风能和太阳能发电的占比达到了创纪录的五分之一——比通过煤炭、天然气或任何其他方式发电的电量都多。美国对欧洲的天然气供应增加了一倍以上，而我们的亚洲盟友——日本和大韩民国——也增加了对欧洲的供应。
与此同时，我们和七国集团伙伴制定的油价上限使俄罗斯能源滞留在全球市场，同时大幅削减了俄罗斯的收益。发动入侵一年后，俄罗斯的石油收入下降了43%。俄罗斯政府从石油和天然气中获得的税收已下降近三分之二。而且莫斯科将无法重新获得在欧洲失去的市场。
第三，普京总统花了20年时间试图将俄罗斯军队建设成一支现代化部队，拥有尖端武器装备、精简的指挥，以及训练有素、装备精良的士兵。克里姆林宫经常号称俄罗斯是世界上第二强大的军事力量，而许多人都相信这一点。今天，许多人认为俄罗斯军队只算得上在乌克兰第二强大的军事力量。即使莫斯科对乌克兰和乌克兰人造成了毁灭性的、肆意滥杀的、无端的破坏，俄罗斯军队的装备、技术、领导力、部队、战略和战术以及士气都是可供研究的失败案例。
据估计，仅在过去六个月中，俄罗斯就有超过10万人伤亡，普京不断地将一波又一波俄罗斯人送进他自己一手制造的绞肉机中。
与此同时，美国、欧盟和其他全球伙伴实施的制裁和出口管制，严重削弱了俄罗斯的战争机器和国防出口，使其倒退若干年。俄罗斯的全球国防合作伙伴和客户再不能指望得到承诺的订单交货，更不用说提供备件了。由于目睹了俄罗斯在战场上的糟糕表现，他们正越来越多地把业务转移到其他地方。
第四，普京总统希望将俄罗斯建设成为全球经济大国。他的入侵注定了其长期以来未能使俄罗斯经济多样化、增强人力资本以及使该国完全融入全球经济的失败。如果普京投资于技术和创新，而不是武器和战争，今天的俄罗斯经济就不会不复当初，本可以发展壮大，如今却微不足道。
俄罗斯的外汇储备下降了一半以上，其国有企业的利润也下降了一半以上。入侵以来，已有1700多家外国公司减少、暂停或终止了在俄罗斯的业务。对克里姆林宫而言，这意味着数以万计就业机会的消失，大量外国专业知识的流失，以及数十亿美元收益的损失。
已有100万人逃离俄罗斯，其中包括许多该国顶尖的科技专家、企业家、工程师、医生、教授、新闻工作者和科学家。 因为在一个无法自由表达自己看法的国家看不到未来，无数艺术家、作家、电影制片人和音乐家也离开了俄罗斯。
第五，普京总统投入了大量精力，以显示俄罗斯可以成为中国的重要伙伴。在发动入侵前夕，北京和莫斯科宣布了一项“无止境”的合作伙伴关系。而俄罗斯入侵18个月后，双方合作关系看起来越来越像是一头热。普京的侵略以及将对俄罗斯的战略性依赖武器化，已给世界各国政府敲响了警钟，让其在去风险方面做出努力。而美国及合作伙伴正在共同采取措施——从建立更具韧性的关键供应链到加强对抗经济胁迫的共同工具——以减少这些脆弱性。
因此，俄罗斯的侵略并没有分散我们应对印太地区的种种挑战的注意力，反而让我们更着重于这些挑战。而我们对乌克兰的支持也没有削弱应对来自中国或任何其他地方的潜在威胁的能力——它反而增强了这种能力。我们相信，北京正在注意到，世界根本没有被强行违反《联合国宪章》的行为吓倒，而是团结起来捍卫《联合国宪章》。
第六，战争之前，普京总统经常利用俄罗斯在国际组织中的影响力削弱《联合国宪章》。今天，俄罗斯在国际舞台上比以往任何时候都更加孤立。至少140个国家——三分之二的联合国成员国——多次在联合国大会投票，确认乌克兰的主权和领土完整，反对普京企图非法吞并乌克兰领土，谴责俄罗斯的侵略和暴行，呼吁按照联合国宪章的原则实现和平。东西方、南北方各方政府投票暂停俄罗斯在从联合国人权理事会（UN Human Rights Council）到国际民用航空组织（International Civil Aviation Organization）等多个机构中的资格。俄罗斯候选人一次又一次在国际机构关键席位的选举中失利——从联合国儿童基金会（UNICEF）执行局，到联合国负责信息和通信技术的国际电联（ITU）机构领导层。
莫斯科遭到的每一次谴责和失利不仅是对俄罗斯侵略投下的反对票，也是对维护《联合国宪章》核心原则投下的支持票。世界各地国家都在支持追究俄罗斯对其战争罪行和危害人类罪行的责任，从设立一个联合国特别委员会来记录在俄罗斯战争中犯下的罪行和侵犯人权的行为，到协助乌克兰和国际刑事法院（International Criminal Court）检察官展开调查。
第七，普京总统多年来一直试图将西方与世界其他国家分隔，声称俄罗斯正在促进发展中国家的最佳利益。今天，由于普京总统公开昭示其帝国野心以及将粮食和燃料武器化，他缩小了俄罗斯在各大洲的影响。普京要使数百年帝国东山再起的企图，让每一个遭受过殖民统治和镇压的国家回想起他们自身的痛苦。而后，他切断了乌克兰粮食与世界市场的联系，导致各地粮食和燃料价格上涨，从而加剧了许多国家因新冠疫情和气候变化而已在经受的经济困难。
与此相反，面对一个接一个的全球挑战，美国和我们的合作伙伴证明，我们对乌克兰的关注不会分散我们致力于改善世界各地人民的生活并应对俄罗斯侵略造成的连带代价。
我们史无前例的紧急粮食援助使数百万人免于饿死。仅去年一年，美国就提供了135亿美元粮食援助。我们目前资助联合国世界粮食计划署（UN World Food Programme）一半以上的预算，而俄罗斯的资助还不到百分之一。
我们支持联合国秘书长古特雷斯（Guterres）和土耳其斡旋达成的旨在打破俄罗斯对乌克兰粮食钳制的协议，使2900万吨粮食以及更多的粮食源源不断地运出乌克兰，送到世界各地。这其中包括800万吨小麦，大约相当于于160亿个面包。
我们与盟友及合作伙伴一起，正在筹集数千亿美元资金，用于在最需要的国家建设优质基础设施，并以透明、有利于环境以及为当地工人和社区赋能的方式进行建造。
我们正在加强全球卫生安全，从在我们自身所在的美洲培训50万卫生专业人员，到帮助莫德纳（Moderna）制药公司完成与肯尼亚的计划，建造它在非洲的第一个信使核糖核酸（mRNA）疫苗生产设施。
我们一次又一次展现着是谁在激化全球问题，又是谁在解决这些问题。
最后，普京总统的核心目标一直是——确实是他执意——要抹杀乌克兰这个概念——它的国家认同、它的人民、它的文化、它的机构和它的领土。但在这一点上，普京的行动效果也适得其反。不曾有任何人比试图抹杀乌克兰的人更加增进了乌克兰的民族认同感。不曾有任何人更加加深了乌克兰人的团结与齐心。不曾有任何人更加加强了乌克兰人按照自己的意愿书写自己未来的决心。
乌克兰永远不会是俄罗斯的一部分。乌克兰保持着主权、独立并将自己的命运牢牢掌握在手中。在这一点上——这也是普京的主要目标——他遭到了最大的惨败。
普京总统再三声称，美国、欧洲和任何支持乌克兰的国家是一心为了打败或摧毁俄罗斯，为了推翻其政府，为了阻挡其人民的前进。这是谬论。我们不寻求推翻俄罗斯政府，而且我们从来没有这样做过。俄罗斯的未来由俄罗斯人决定。
我们与俄罗斯人民没有争执，他们对发动这场悲惨的战争没有发言权。我们哀叹普京正在让成千上万俄罗斯人为一场如果他愿意，现在就可以结束的战争送死，并对俄罗斯的经济和前景造成毁灭性的影响。的确，必须提出这样一个问题：普京的战争给普通俄罗斯公民的人生、生计或前途带来了什么改善？
我们和我们的盟友以及合作伙伴针对普京的侵略行径作出的所有反应都是为了一个同样的目的：帮助乌克兰捍卫主权、领土完整和独立，并捍卫因普京正在进行的战争而受到威胁的国际规则和原则。
请让我直接对俄罗斯人民说：美国不是你们的敌人。在冷战和平结束之际，我们和你们一样希望俄罗斯将走向一个更光明的未来，自由和开放，并且完全融入世界。30多年来，我们一直致力于与莫斯科建立稳定的合作关系，因为我们相信，一个和平、安全和繁荣的俄罗斯符合美国的利益——而且确实符合世界的利益。我们今天仍然相信这一点。
我们无法为你们选择你们的未来，我们不会试图这样做。但我们也不会让普京总统将他的意志强加于其他国家。莫斯科必须以俄罗斯自己所要求得到的同样尊重来对待邻国的独立、主权和领土完整。
正如我已经明确指出的，几乎用所有标准衡量，普京总统对乌克兰的入侵都是一个战略失败。然而，尽管普京未能实现其目标，他仍未放弃这些目标。他一味相信他可以拖垮乌克兰以及乌克兰的支持者，把越来越多的俄罗斯人派去送死，给乌克兰老百姓造成越来越多的苦难。他认为即使暂时输局，他仍然可以长远得胜。普京在这点上也是错误的。
美国——连同我们的盟友和伙伴——坚定不移地致力于支持乌克兰的防御，在今天、明天以及无论需要多长时间。在美国，这种支持是跨党派的。而且正因为我们对普京的野心不存有任何幻想，我们认为有意义的外交和真正的和平的先决条件是有一个更强大的乌克兰——有能力威慑和抵御未来的任何侵略。
我们为这项努力聚集了一支强大的团队。在奥斯汀（Austin）部长的领导下，50多个国家正在通过乌克兰防务联络小组（Ukraine Defense Contact Group）开展合作。我们正在以身作则，向乌克兰提供数百亿美元的安全援助，它得到美国国会两党的大力坚定支持。
今天，美国与我们的盟友和伙伴正在帮助满足乌克兰在当前战场上的需要，同时建设一支强大、可持续的力量，以便威慑和抵御未来的侵略。这意味着帮助乌克兰建立一支面向未来的军队，通过提供长期资金，建设一支以现代战斗机为核心的强大空军，一个一体化的防空和反导网，先进的坦克和装甲车，国产弹药能力，以及使部队和装备保持备战状态的训练及支持。
这也意味着乌克兰加入北约将由盟国和乌克兰——而不是俄罗斯——决定。通往和平的道路不仅要靠乌克兰的长远军事实力，而且要靠它的经济和民主实力。这是我们未来愿景的核心：乌克兰不仅一定要生存，而且一定要繁荣。为了强大到足以遏止和抵御境外的侵略者，乌克兰境内需要有充满活力、繁荣的民主制度。
这是乌克兰人民在1991年赢得独立时投票选择的道路。这是他们2004年和2013年在独立广场（Maidan）所捍卫的选择：自由开放的社会，尊重人权和法治，完全融入欧洲，所有乌克兰人都享有尊严和充分发挥潜力的机会——并且政府响应人民的需要，而不是既得利益者和精英的需要。
我们致力于与盟友和伙伴合作，帮助乌克兰人实现他们的愿景。我们不仅将帮助乌克兰重建经济，而且重新设想，形成与欧洲和世界各地市场连接的新产业、贸易渠道和供应链。我们将继续支持乌克兰独立的反腐败机构、自由和有活力的媒体以及公民社会组织。我们将帮助乌克兰改造能源网——其一半以上被俄罗斯摧毁——并使之更清洁、更坚韧、与邻国更为一体化，进而使乌克兰有朝一日成为能源出口国。
乌克兰与欧洲更紧密的融合对于所有这些努力至关重要。去年6月，基辅朝着这个方向迈出了巨大的一步，当时欧盟正式给予乌克兰欧盟候选国地位。尽管要为自身生存而战，基辅仍在努力为达到欧盟设定的标准取得进展。
投资于乌克兰的实力并不是以外交为代价，而是为外交铺平道路。泽连斯基（Zelenskyy）总统多次表示，外交是结束这场战争的唯一途径，而且我们也赞同这一观点。去年12月，他提出了一个实现公正及持久的和平的愿景。普京总统没有对这项提议做出回应，甚至没有提出自己的方案，而是声称在乌克兰接受他所谓的“新领土现实”之前，没什么好谈的——换句话说，就是接受俄罗斯对20%的乌克兰领土的侵占。普京在冬季试图把乌克兰平民冻死，又在春季试图把他们炸死。俄罗斯日复一日地对乌克兰的公寓楼、学校和医院大肆发动导弹和无人机袭击。
远离该地区的人们易于对俄罗斯的这类暴行及其他暴行变得麻木。就像上周第聂伯罗（Dnipro）的一家医疗诊所遭受的无人机袭击，导致包括医生在内的四人丧生；或是基辅仅仅在五月份就遭到17次袭击，其中多次袭击使用了高超音速导弹；还有距离前线数百英里外的乌曼市（Oohman）在四月份遭受的导弹袭击，导致23名平民丧生。火箭袭击在黎明前击中了乌曼市的多栋公寓楼。在其中一栋楼里，一位名叫德米特罗（Dmytro）的父亲冲进他的两个孩子睡觉的房间，但当他打开门时，房间已被炸毁，里面只有火焰和烟雾，他的两个孩子——17岁的基里洛（Kyrylo）和11岁的索菲亚（Sophia）——不见踪影。又有两条无辜的生命逝去。他们是俄罗斯仅在一次袭击中就杀害的六名儿童中的两名。在俄罗斯的侵略战争中，还有成百上千的乌克兰儿童丧生，以及成千上万的儿童受伤。另有成千上万的儿童从家中被俄罗斯绑架，并被送给俄罗斯家庭。数百万人流离失所。他们都是在普京的侵略战争中被恐吓、遭受创伤并且伤痕累累的一代乌克兰儿童的一部分。所有这些人都让我们谨记乌克兰人民为什么如此坚定不移地致力于捍卫自己的国家，以及他们为什么理应得到——理应得到——以公正及持久的方式终结这场战争。
有人提出，如果美国真的希望和平，我们就应该停止支持乌克兰。如果乌克兰真的希望结束战争，它就应该减少损失，放弃其被俄罗斯非法占领的五分之一领土。让我们来设想一下这种情况。如果普京的侵略行为得逞并占据乌克兰五分之一的领土，还有哪些俄罗斯邻国会对自身的主权和领土完整抱有信心呢？
有鉴于此，任何一个与一贯进行威胁和侵略的恶霸比邻而居的国家，又如何在自己的国境内感到安全呢？如果听任普京违反《联合国宪章》的核心原则并逍遥法外，全世界其他可能采取侵略行径的国家会得到什么启示呢？历史上，有多少占领邻国的全部或部分领土的侵略者感到过满足并就此罢手呢？弗拉基米尔·普京有哪一次满足过呢？
美国一直在与乌克兰——以及全世界的盟友及伙伴合作——就公正及持久的和平的核心要素建立共识。在此阐明：美国欢迎任何有助于促使普京总统坐到桌前参与有意义的外交努力的倡议。我们将支持有关努力——无论是巴西、中国还是其他任何国家的努力——只要它们有助于找到与《联合国宪章》的各项原则相符的公正及持久的和平之路。
其具体含义如下：
公正及持久的和平必须维护《联合国宪章》，并确认主权、领土完整和独立的原则。
公正及持久的和平需要乌克兰的全面参与及同意——有关乌克兰的一切事务都不能没有乌克兰参与。
公正及持久的和平必须支持乌克兰的重建和恢复，而且俄罗斯必须支付其份额。
公正及持久的和平必须解决究责及和解两个问题。
公正及持久的和平可以为与具体行动相关联的制裁减轻开启一条通路，特别是撤军行动。公正及持久的和平必须终结俄罗斯的侵略战争。
在未来的几周和几个月里，一些国家将呼吁停火。从表面上看，这似乎是合理的，甚至是有吸引力的。毕竟，谁不希望交战各方放下武器？谁不希望停止杀戮呢？
但是，一个仅仅将当前战线原地冻结并使普京得以巩固他所占领的领土，然后休整、重新武装并再次进攻的停火，并不是公正且持久的和平。那是一个波将金（Potemkin）式的和平。它将把俄罗斯掠夺领土的行径合法化。它将奖励侵略者并惩罚受害者。
如果俄罗斯准备为真正的和平而努力，到那时美国将与乌克兰以及世界各地的其他盟友和伙伴协同作出回应。我们将与乌克兰以及盟友和伙伴共同准备就促进稳定和透明并降低未来冲突可能性的欧洲安全问题展开更广泛的讨论。
在未来的几周和几个月里，美国将继续与乌克兰、我们的盟友和伙伴以及致力于支持以这些原则为基础的公正及持久的和平的所有各方合作。
1949年4月4日，也就是芬兰加入北约74年前的日子，北约的创始成员国齐聚华盛顿签署了创建条约。杜鲁门总统（President Truman）当时告诫在座人士说，我引用他的原话：“如果我们的人民时刻担心侵略的威胁，以及要承担各个国家准备抵御攻击的资金重负，我们将无法取得成功。我们希望建立起一道防护屏障来抵挡侵略和对侵略的恐惧——一道将使我们能够继续致力于真正的事业……为我们所有公民实现更充实、更幸福的生活的堡垒。”
今天依然如此。任何一个国家——无论是乌克兰、美国、芬兰、瑞典还是其他国家——如果时刻生活在遭受侵略的恐惧中，就不能为其人民谋福利。正因为如此，一定要让普京总统对乌克兰的侵略战争继续在战略上失败，这与我们所有人利害攸关。
尼尼斯托总统在对芬兰人民发表新年致辞时指出了普京总统迅速征服乌克兰的企图的一个根本性缺陷——这个缺陷也曾注定斯大林在企图迅速征服芬兰时遭到挫败。正如尼尼斯托总统所说，我引用他的原话：“作为一个专制统治下的国家的领导人，斯大林和普京未能认识到……生活在自由国度中的人民拥有自己的意志和信念。一个齐心协力的国家是一种巨大的力量。”
芬兰人用一个词语来形容那种意志和决心的坚定结合：sisu。他们在今天乌克兰人民的奋斗中看到了sisu精神。当像乌克兰人民这样的自由民族获得全球各个自由国家的支持时——这些国家认可他们的命运和自由——他们的权利和安全便不可分割地紧密相连，他们所拥有的力量不仅仅是巨大的，而且是势不可挡的。
非常感谢各位。（掌声）
欲查看原稿内容: https://www.state.gov/russias-strategic-failure-and-ukraines-secure-future/
本译文仅供参考，只有英文原稿才可以被视为权威资料来源。
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Russia’s Strategic Failure and Ukraine’s Secure Future
Russia’s Strategic Failure and Ukraine’s Secure Future
SPEECH
ANTONY J. BLINKEN, SECRETARY OF STATE
HELSINKI CITY HALL
HELSINKI, FINLAND
JUNE 2, 2023
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MAYOR VARTIAINEN: Your Excellencies, ladies and gentlemen, dear friends, it is my great pleasure to warmly welcome you all to the beautiful capital of Finland, Helsinki, and the Helsinki City Hall. Helsinki has a great honor to host this special event today. We are humbled and in great appreciation to have the U.S. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken here in Helsinki.
Helsinki is a city where the harmonious blend of history, innovation, freedom, and diplomacy converges. Our capital is and has been an arena for numerous high-level meetings and political events, and we are proud to provide the platform for this historical moment, now for the first time as the proud capital of a new NATO Ally.
Now it is my great pleasure to introduce you the co-organizer of the event, Dr. Mika Aaltola, the director of the Finnish Institute of International Affairs. Thank you. (Applause.)
MR AALTOLA: Your Excellencies, ladies and gentlemen, this is a truly historical day. It is the first time that a United States secretary of state stands on the solid granite ground of NATO Finland. Secretary Blinken’s visit represents a new era in the Finnish-U.S. relations that have long historical ties. Never before have the relations between our two countries been this close.
In addition to now being NATO Allies, Finland and the United States are working together to enhance our bilateral defense cooperation. Also, economic cooperation has increased significantly as the U.S. became Finland’s number one trade partner last year.
While physically separated by an ocean, our countries are bound by ties that surpass distance. We face common security challenges, but even more importantly, we share a belief in democracy, in our common values and shared interests.
These values are being challenged by Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine. With the level of economic and military support it has offered to Ukraine, the United States remains the indispensable force in Europe. The U.S. was already awake when most of Europe was still sleeping, relatively undisturbed by Russia’s power political gaming. U.S. leadership is as needed as ever.
This leadership helps to keep doors open and enemies at bay, but there would be no leadership without a partnership. This partnership is something that Finland has offered to the United States. Finland is an able ally and a security provider. We carry our responsibilities in our region and beyond, and we are committed to support Ukraine and to defend ourselves and the values we stand for. This commitment is shared by the Finnish leadership but, even more importantly, by the Finnish people.
Finland has ranked as the least corrupt, most egalitarian, one of the most educated, and most democratic countries in the world. It also is the most stable country in the world. In these volatile times, this stability has a value of its own. Surprisingly for many Finns, Finland is also the happiest country in the world. We question this result every year, but it is pointed to us that it is the case. It is a fact, so how miserable others must be if we are the happiest. (Laughter.)
But now I’m truly happy to be able to welcome on the stage with United States Secretary of State Mr. Antony Blinken. (Applause.)
SECRETARY BLINKEN: Thank you. Thank you very much. And yes, I feel a greater sense of happiness today than I’ve felt in a long time. (Laughter.)
Mayor Vartiainen, thank you for hosting us here in Helsinki, and in this absolutely magnificent city hall.
And Mika, my thanks to you, and also to your entire team – all of the researchers at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, for deepening the scholarship about diplomacy, and also enriching the public debate.
I’m also gratified that my friend and my partner, Pekka Haavisto, is here with us today. We have worked so closely together over this past truly historic year, and I’m grateful for your presence.
To all of the distinguished guests, two months ago, I stood with our Allies in Brussels as Finland’s flag was raised over NATO headquarters for the first time. President Niinistö declared, and I quote, “The era of military nonalignment in Finland has come to an end. A new era begins.”
It was a sea change that would have been unthinkable a little more than a year earlier. Before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, one in four Finns supported the country joining NATO. After the full-scale invasion, three in four Finns supported joining.
It wasn’t hard for Finns to imagine themselves in the Ukrainians’ shoes. They’d walked in them in November 1939, when the Soviet Union invaded Finland.
Like President Putin’s so-called “special operation” against Ukraine, the USSR’s so-called “liberation operation” falsely accused Finland of provoking the invasion.
Like the Russians with Kyiv, the Soviets were confident that they’d sack Helsinki in weeks – so confident that they had Dmitri Shostakovich compose music for the victory parade, before the Winter War even started.
Like Putin in Ukraine, when Stalin failed to overcome the Finns’ fierce and determined resistance, he shifted to a strategy of terror, incinerating entire villages and bombing so many hospitals from the air that Finns started covering up the Red Cross insignia on the rooftops.
Like the millions of Ukrainian refugees today, hundreds of thousands of Finns were driven from their homes by the Soviet invasion. They included two children, Pirkko and Henri, whose families evacuated their homes in Karelia – the mother and father of our host, the mayor of the city.
To many Finns, the parallels between 1939 and 2022 were striking. They were visceral. And they were not wrong.
Finns understood that if Russia violated the core principles of the UN Charter – sovereignty, territorial integrity, independence – if they did that in Ukraine, it will imperil their own peace and security as well.
We understood that, too. That’s why, over the course of 2021, as Russia ratcheted up its threats against Kyiv and amassed more and more troops, tanks, and planes on Ukraine’s borders, we made every effort to get Moscow to de-escalate its manufactured crisis and resolve its issues through diplomacy.
President Biden told President Putin that we were prepared to discuss our mutual security concerns – a message that I reaffirmed repeatedly – including in person, with Foreign Minister Lavrov. We offered written proposals to reduce tensions. Together with our allies and partners, we used every forum to try to prevent war, from the NATO-Russia Council to the OSCE, from the UN to our direct channels.
Across these engagements, we set out two possible paths for Moscow: a path of diplomacy, which could lead to greater security for Ukraine, for Russia, for all of Europe; or a path of aggression, which would result in severe consequences for the Russian Government.
President Biden made clear that regardless of which path President Putin chose, we would be ready. And if Russia chose war, we would do three things: support Ukraine, impose severe costs on Russia, and strengthen NATO while rallying our allies and partners around these goals.
As the storm clouds gathered, we surged military, economic, and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine. First in August 2021, and again in December, we sent military equipment to bolster Ukraine’s defenses, including Javelins and Stingers. And we deployed a team from the U.S. Cyber Command to help Ukraine shore up its power grid and other critical infrastructure against cyber attacks.
We prepared an unprecedented set of sanctions, export controls, other economic costs to impose severe and immediate consequences on Russia in the event of a full-scale invasion.
We took steps to leave no doubt that we, and our Allies, would uphold our commitment to defend every inch of NATO territory.
And we worked relentlessly to rally allies and partners around helping Ukraine defend itself and denying Putin his strategic aims.
Since day one of his administration, President Biden has focused on rebuilding and revitalizing America’s alliances and partnerships, knowing that we’re stronger when we work alongside those who share our interests and our values.
In the run-up to Russia’s invasion, we demonstrated the power of those partnerships – coordinating our planning and strategy for a potential invasion with NATO, with the EU, with the G7, and other allies and partners from around the world.
Over those fateful weeks in January and February of 2022, it became clear that no amount of diplomatic effort was going to change President Putin’s mind. He would choose war.
And so, on February 17, 2022, I went before the United Nations Security Council to warn the world that Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine was imminent.
I set out the steps that Russia would take: first manufacturing a pretext, and then using missiles, tanks, troops, cyber attacks to strike pre-identified targets, including Kyiv, with the aim of toppling Ukraine’s democratically elected government and erasing Ukraine from the map as an independent country.
We hoped – we hoped – to be proven wrong.
Unfortunately, we were right. A week after my warning to the Security Council, President Putin invaded. Ukrainians of all walks of life – soldiers and citizens, men and women, young and old – bravely defended their nation.
And the United States moved swiftly, decisively, and in unison with allies and partners to do exactly what we said we’d do: support Ukraine, impose costs on Russia, strengthen NATO – all of this with our allies and partners.
And with our collective support, Ukraine did what it said it would do: defended its territory, its independence, its democracy.
Today, what I want to do is set out this and the many other ways Putin’s war of aggression against Ukraine has been a strategic failure, greatly diminishing Russia’s power, its interests, and its influence for years to come. And I’ll also share our vision of the path to a just and lasting peace.
When you look at President Putin’s long-term strategic aims and objectives, there is no question: Russia is significantly worse off today than it was before its full-scale invasion of Ukraine – militarily, economically, geopolitically.
Where Putin aimed to project strength, he’s revealed weakness. Where he sought to divide, he’s united. What he tried to prevent, he’s precipitated. That outcome is no accident. It’s the direct result of the courage and solidarity of the Ukrainian people and the deliberate, decisive, swift action that we and our partners have taken to support Ukraine.
First, for years, President Putin sought to weaken and divide NATO, under the false claim that it posed a threat to Russia. In fact, before Russia invaded Crimea and eastern Ukraine in 2014, NATO’s posture reflected a shared conviction that conflict in Europe was unlikely. The United States had significantly reduced its forces in Europe since the end of the Cold War, from 315,000 in 1989 to 61,000 at the end of 2013. Many European countries’ spending on defense had been declining for years. NATO’s strategic doctrine at the time labeled Russia a partner.
Following Russia’s invasion of Crimea and the Donbas in 2014, that tide began to turn. Allies committed to spend two percent of GDP on defense and deployed new forces to NATO’s eastern flank in response to Russia’s aggression. The Alliance has accelerated its transformation since Russia’s full-scale invasion – not to pose a threat or because NATO seeks conflict. NATO always has been – and always will be – a defensive alliance. But Russia’s aggression, threats, nuclear saber-rattling compelled us to reinforce our deterrence and defense.
Hours after the full-scale invasion, we activated NATO’s defensive Response Force. In the weeks that followed, several Allies – including the United Kingdom, Germany, the Netherlands, Denmark, Spain, France – swiftly sent troops, aircraft, and ships to reinforce NATO’s eastern flank. We doubled the number of ships patrolling the North and Baltic seas, and doubled the number of battle groups in the region. The United States established its first permanent military presence in Poland. And, of course, NATO added Finland as its 31st Ally, and we will soon add Sweden as the 32nd.
As we head into the NATO Summit in Vilnius, our shared message will be clear: NATO Allies are committed to enhanced deterrence and defense, to greater and smarter defense spending, to deeper ties with Indo-Pacific partners. NATO’s door remains open to new members, and it will stay open.
Russia’s invasion has also led the European Union to do more – and more together with the United States and with NATO – than ever before. The EU and its member-states have provided over $75 billion in military, economic, humanitarian support to Ukraine. That includes $18 billion in security assistance, from air defense systems to Leopard tanks to ammunition. Coordinating closely with the U.S., the U.K., and other partners, the EU has launched its most ambitious sanctions ever, immobilizing over half of Russia’s sovereign assets. And European nations have taken in more than 8 million Ukrainian refugees, most of whom have not only been granted access to public services, but also the right to work, to study.
Second, for decades, Moscow worked to deepen Europe’s dependence on Russian oil and gas. Since President Putin’s full-scale invasion, Europe has made a swift and decisive turn away from Russian energy. Berlin immediately canceled Nord Stream 2, which would have doubled the flow of Russian gas to Germany.
Before Putin’s invasion, European countries imported 37 percent of their natural gas from Russia. Europe cut that by more than half in less than a year. In 2022, EU countries generated a record one-fifth of their electricity through wind and solar – more electricity than the EU generated through coal, gas, or any other power source. The United States for its part more than doubled our supply of gas to Europe, and our Asian allies – Japan, the Republic of Korea – also stepped up to boost Europe’s supply.
Meanwhile, the oil price cap that we and our G7 partners put in place has kept Russia’s energy in the global market, while dramatically cutting Russian revenues. A year into its invasion, Russia’s oil revenues had fallen by 43 percent. The Russian Government’s tax revenues from oil and gas have fallen by nearly two-thirds. And Moscow will not get back the markets that it has lost in Europe.
Third, President Putin spent two decades trying to build Russia’s military into a modern force, with cutting-edge weaponry, streamlined command, and well-trained, well-equipped soldiers. The Kremlin often claimed it had the second-strongest military in the world, and many believed it. Today, many see Russia’s military as the second-strongest in Ukraine. Its equipment, technology, leadership, troops, strategy, tactics, and morale, a case study in failure – even as Moscow inflicts devastating, indiscriminate, and gratuitous damage on Ukraine and Ukrainians.
Russia is estimated to have suffered more than 100,000 casualties in the last six months alone, as Putin sends wave after wave of Russians into a meat grinder of his own making.
Meanwhile, sanctions and export controls imposed by the United States, the European Union, and other partners around the world have severely degraded Russia’s war machine and defense exports, setting them back for years to come. Russia’s global defense partners and customers can no longer count on promised orders, let alone spare parts. And as they witness Russia’s poor performance on the battlefield, they are increasingly taking their business elsewhere.
Fourth, President Putin wanted to build Russia up as a global, economic power. His invasion cemented his long-running failure to diversify Russia’s economy, to strengthen its human capital, to fully integrate the country into the global economy. Today, Russia’s economy is a shadow of what it was, and a fraction of what it could have become had Putin invested in technology and innovation rather than weapons and war.
Russia’s foreign reserves are down by more than half, as are profits from its state-owned enterprises. More than 1,700 foreign companies have reduced, suspended, or ended operations in Russia since the onset of the invasion. That’s tens of thousands of jobs gone, a massive flight of foreign expertise, and billions of dollars in lost revenue for the Kremlin.
A million people have fled Russia, including many of the country’s top IT specialists, entrepreneurs, engineers, doctors, professors, journalists, scientists. Countless artists, writers, filmmakers, musicians have also left, seeing no future for themselves in a country where they can’t express themselves freely.
Fifth, President Putin invested considerable effort to show that Russia could be a valued partner to China. On the eve of the invasion, Beijing and Moscow declared a “no limits” partnership. Eighteen months into the invasion, that two-way partnership looks more and more one-sided. Putin’s aggression and weaponization of strategic dependencies on Russia has served as a wake-up call to governments around the world to make efforts at de-risking. And together, the United States and our partners are taking steps to reduce those vulnerabilities, from building more resilient critical supply chains to strengthening our shared tools to counter economic coercion.
So, Russia’s aggression hasn’t distracted us from meeting the challenges in the Indo-Pacific. It’s actually sharpened our focus on them. And our support for Ukraine hasn’t weakened our capabilities to meet potential threats from China or anywhere else – it’s strengthened them. And we believe that Beijing is taking notice that, far from being intimidated by a forceful violation of the UN Charter, the world has rallied to defend it.
Sixth, prior to the war, President Putin regularly used Russia’s influence in international organizations to try to weaken the United Nations Charter. Today, Russia is more isolated on the world stage than ever. At least 140 nations – two-thirds of UN member-states – have repeatedly voted in the UN General Assembly to affirm Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, to reject Putin’s attempts to illegally annex Ukrainian territory, to condemn Russia’s aggression and atrocities, and to call for a peace consistent with the principles of the United Nations Charter. Governments from the West and East, North and South have voted to suspend Russia from numerous institutions, from the UN Human Rights Council to the International Civil Aviation Organization. Russian candidates have lost one election after another for key seats in international institutions, from the governing board of UNICEF to leadership of the UN agency responsible for information and communication technologies, the ITU.
Each rebuke and loss for Moscow is not only a vote against Russia’s aggression, it’s a vote for the core principles of the United Nations Charter. And countries from every part of the world are supporting efforts to hold Russia accountable for its war crimes and crimes against humanity, from creating a special UN commission to document the crimes and human rights violations committed in Russia’s war to assisting investigations by prosecutors in Ukraine and at the International Criminal Court.
Seventh, President Putin, for years, sought to divide the West from the rest, claiming that Russia was advancing the best interests of the developing world. Today, thanks to openly declaring his imperial ambitions and weaponizing food and fuel, President Putin has diminished Russian influence on every continent. Putin’s efforts to reconstitute a centuries-old empire reminded every nation that had endured colonial rule and repression of their own pain. Then, he exacerbated the economic hardship many nations were already experiencing due to COVID and climate change by cutting off Ukraine’s grain from the world markets, driving up the cost of food and fuel everywhere.
By contrast, on one global challenge after another, the United States and our partners have proven that our focus on Ukraine will not distract us from working to improve the lives of people around the world and address the cascading costs of Russia’s aggression.
Our unprecedented emergency food aid has prevented millions of people from starving to death. Just last year alone, the United States provided $13.5 billion in food assistance. And the United States is currently funding over half of the UN World Food Programme’s budget. Russia funds less than one percent.
We supported a deal negotiated by UN Secretary-General Guterres and Türkiye to break Russia’s stranglehold on Ukrainian grain, allowing 29 million tons of food and counting to get out of Ukraine and to people around the world. That includes 8 million tons of wheat, which is the equivalent of roughly 16 billion loaves of bread.
Together with allies and partners, we’re mobilizing hundreds of billions of dollars in financing for high-quality infrastructure in the countries where it’s needed most and building it in a way that’s transparent, good for the environment; empowers local workers and communities.
We’re strengthening global health security, from training half a million health professionals in our own hemisphere, in the Americas, to helping the pharmaceutical company Moderna finalize plans with Kenya to build its first mRNA vaccine manufacturing facility in Africa.
Time and again, we are demonstrating who fuels global problems and who solves them.
Finally, President Putin’s core aim – indeed, his obsession – has been to erase the very idea of Ukraine – its identity, its people, its culture, its agency, its territory. But here, too, Putin’s actions have precipitated the opposite effect. No one has done more to strengthen Ukraine’s national identity than the man who sought to wipe it out. No one has done more to deepen Ukrainians’ unity and solidarity. No one has done more to intensify Ukrainians’ determination to write their own future on their own terms.
Ukraine will never be Russia. Ukraine stands sovereign, independent, firmly in control of its own destiny. In this – Putin’s primary goal – he has failed most spectacularly.
President Putin constantly claims that the United States, Europe, and countries that support Ukraine are bent on defeating or destroying Russia, on toppling its government, on holding back its people. That is false. We do not seek the overthrow of the Russian Government and we never have. Russia’s future is for Russians to decide.
We have no quarrel with the Russian people, who had no say in starting this tragic war. We lament that Putin is sending tens of thousands of Russians to their deaths in a war he could end now, if he chose – and inflicting ruinous impact on Russia’s economy and its prospects. Indeed, it must be asked: How has Putin’s war improved the lives, the livelihoods, or the prospects of ordinary Russian citizens?
Everything that we and our allies and partners do in response to Putin’s invasion has the same purpose: to help Ukraine defend its sovereignty, its territorial integrity and independence, and to stand up for the international rules and principles that are threatened by Putin’s ongoing war.
Let me say this directly to the Russian people: The United States is not your enemy. At the peaceful end of the Cold War, we shared the hope that Russia would emerge to a brighter future, free and open, fully integrated with the world. For more than 30 years, we worked to pursue stable and cooperative relations with Moscow, because we believed that a peaceful, secure, and prosperous Russia is in America’s interests – indeed, in the interests of the world. We still believe that today.
We cannot choose your future for you, and we won’t try to do so. But we also will not let President Putin impose his will on other nations. Moscow must treat the independence, the sovereignty, the territorial integrity of its neighbors with the same respect that it demands for Russia.
Now, as I’ve made clear, by virtually every measure, President Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has been a strategic failure. Yet while Putin has failed to achieve his aims, he hasn’t given up on them. He’s convinced that he can simply outlast Ukraine and its supporters, sending more and more Russians to their deaths, inflicting more and more suffering on Ukraine’s civilians. He thinks that even if he loses the short game, he can still win the long game. Putin is wrong about this, too.
The United States – together with our allies and partners – is firmly committed to supporting Ukraine’s defense today, tomorrow, for as long as it takes. And in America, this support is bipartisan. And precisely because we have no illusions about Putin’s aspirations, we believe the prerequisite for meaningful diplomacy and real peace is a stronger Ukraine, capable of deterring and defending against any future aggression.
We’ve rallied a formidable team around this effort. With Secretary of Defense Austin’s leadership, more than 50 countries are cooperating through the Ukraine Defense Contact Group. And we’re leading by the power of our example, providing tens of billions of dollars in security assistance to Ukraine with robust and unwavering support from both sides of the aisle in our Congress.
Today, America and our allies and partners are helping meet Ukraine’s needs on the current battlefield while developing a force that can deter and defend against aggression for years to come. That means helping build a Ukrainian military of the future, with long-term funding, a strong air force centered on modern combat aircraft, an integrated air and missile defense network, advanced tanks and armored vehicles, national capacity to produce ammunition, and the training and support to keep forces and equipment combat-ready.
That also means Ukraine’s membership in NATO will be a matter for Allies and Ukraine – not Russia – to decide. The path to peace will be forged not only through Ukraine’s long-term military strength, but also the strength of its economy and its democracy. This is at the heart of our vision for the way forward: Ukraine must not only survive, it must thrive. To be strong enough to deter and defend against aggressors beyond its borders, Ukraine needs a vibrant, prosperous democracy within its borders.
That’s the path the Ukrainian people voted for when they won their independence in 1991. It’s the choice they defended in the Maidan in 2004, and again in 2013: a free and open society, with respect for human rights and the rule of law, fully integrated with Europe, where all Ukrainians have dignity and the opportunity to realize their full potential – and where the government responds to the needs of its people, not those of vested interests and elites.
We are committed to working with allies and partners to help Ukrainians make their vision a reality. We’ll not only help Ukraine rebuild its economy, but reimagine it, with new industries, trade routes, supply chains connected with Europe and with markets around the world. We’ll continue to bolster Ukraine’s independent anti-corruption bodies, a free and vibrant press, civil society organizations. We’ll help Ukraine overhaul its energy grid – more than half of which has been destroyed by Russia – and do it in a way that’s cleaner, more resilient, and more integrated with its neighbors, so that Ukraine can one day become an energy exporter.
Ukraine’s greater integration with Europe is vital to all of these efforts. Kyiv took a giant step in that direction last June, when the union formally granted Ukraine EU candidate status. And Kyiv is working to make progress toward the EU’s benchmarks even as it fights for its survival.
Investing in Ukraine’s strength is not at the expense of diplomacy. It paves the way for diplomacy. President Zelenskyy has said repeatedly that diplomacy is the only way to end this war, and we agree. In December, he put forward a vision for a just and lasting peace. Instead of engaging on that proposal or even offering one of his own, President Putin has said there is nothing to talk about until Ukraine accepts, and I quote, “new territorial realities” – in other words, accept Russia’s seizure of 20 percent of Ukraine’s territory. Putin spent the winter trying to freeze Ukrainian civilians to death, and then the spring trying to bomb them to death. Day after day, Russia rains down missiles and drones on Ukrainian apartment buildings, schools, hospitals.
Now, from a distance, it’s easy to become numb to these and other Russian atrocities, like the drone strike last week on a medical clinic in Dnipro, which killed four people, including doctors; or the 17 strikes on Kyiv in the month of May alone, many using hypersonic missiles; or the missile attack in April on the city of Uman – hundreds of miles from the front lines – in which 23 civilians were killed. The rocket strike hit multiple apartment buildings in Uman before dawn. In one of those buildings, a father, Dmytro, raced to the room where his children were sleeping – Kyrylo, age 17; Sophia, age 11. But when he opened the door to their bedroom, there was no room, just fire and smoke. His children were gone. Two more innocent lives extinguished. Two of the six children Russia killed in a single strike. Two of the thousands of Ukrainian children killed by Russia’s war of aggression. Thousands more have been wounded, and thousands beyond that have been abducted from their families by Russia and given to Russian families. Millions have been displaced. All are part of a generation of Ukrainian children terrorized, traumatized, scarred by Putin’s war of aggression, all of whom remind us why Ukrainians are so fiercely committed to defending their nation and why they deserve – deserve – a just and lasting peace.
Now, some have argued that if the United States truly wanted peace, we’d stop supporting Ukraine, and then if Ukraine truly wanted to end the war, it would just cut its losses and give up the fifth of its territory that Russia illegally occupies. Let’s play this out for a minute. What neighbors of Russia would feel confident in their own sovereignty and territorial integrity if Putin’s aggression were to be rewarded with a fifth of Ukraine’s territory?
And for that matter, how would any country that lives near a bully, with a history of threats and aggression, feel secure within its own borders? What lesson will other would-be aggressors around the world learn if Putin is allowed to violate a core tenet of the UN Charter with impunity? And how often in history have aggressors who seize all or part of a neighboring country been satisfied and stopped there? When has that ever satisfied Vladimir Putin?
The United States has been working with Ukraine – and allies and partners around the world – to build consensus around the core elements of a just and lasting peace. To be clear, the United States welcomes any initiative that helps bring President Putin to the table to engage in meaningful diplomacy. We’ll support efforts – whether by Brazil, by China, or any other nation – if they help find a way to a just and lasting peace, consistent with the principles of the United Nations Charter.
Here’s what that means.
A just and lasting peace must uphold the UN Charter and affirm the principles of sovereignty, territorial integrity, and independence.
A just and lasting peace requires Ukraine’s full participation and assent – nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine.
A just and lasting peace must support Ukraine’s reconstruction and recovery, with Russia paying its share.
A just and lasting peace must address both accountability and reconciliation.
A just and lasting peace can open a pathway to sanctions relief connected to concrete actions, especially military withdrawal. A just and lasting peace must end Russia’s war of aggression.
Now, over the coming weeks and months, some countries will call for a ceasefire. And on the surface, that sounds sensible – attractive, even. After all, who doesn’t want warring parties to lay down their arms? Who doesn’t want the killing to stop?
But a ceasefire that simply freezes current lines in place and enables Putin to consolidate control over the territory he’s seized, and then rest, re-arm, and re-attack – that is not a just and lasting peace. It’s a Potemkin peace. It would legitimize Russia’s land grab. It would reward the aggressor and punish the victim.
If and when Russia is ready to work for true peace, the United States will respond in concert with Ukraine and other allies and partners around the world. And along with Ukraine and allies and partners, we would be prepared to have a broader discussion on European security that promotes stability and transparency and reduces the likelihood of future conflict.
In the weeks and months ahead, the United States will continue to work with Ukraine, with our allies and partners – and any and all parties dedicated to supporting a just and lasting peace based on these principles.
On April 4, 1949, 74 years to the day before Finland joined NATO, the original members of the Alliance gathered in Washington to sign its founding treaty. President Truman warned the group, and I quote, “We cannot succeed if our people are haunted by the constant fear of aggression and burdened by the cost of preparing their nations individually against attack. [W]e hope to create a shield against aggression and the fear of aggression – a bulwark which will permit us to get on with the real business of . . . achieving a fuller and happier life for all our citizens.”
The same is true today. No nation – not Ukraine, not the United States, not Finland, Sweden, any other country can deliver for its people if it lives in constant fear of aggression. That’s why we’ve all got a stake in ensuring that President Putin’s war of aggression against Ukraine continues to be a strategic failure.
In his New Year’s address to the Finnish people, President Niinistö identified one of the fundamental flaws of President Putin’s plan to swiftly conquer Ukraine – a flaw that also doomed Stalin’s plan to swiftly conquer Finland. As President Niinistö said, and I quote, “As leaders of a country under authoritarian rule, Stalin and Putin failed to recognize . . . that people living in a free country have their own will and convictions. And that a nation that works together constitutes an immense force.”
Finns have a word for that fierce combination of will and determination: sisu. And they recognize sisu in the struggle of Ukrainians today. And when a free people like the Ukrainians have at their backs the support of free nations around the world – nations who recognize their fates and freedom – their rights and security are inextricably bound together, the force they possess is not merely immense. It is unstoppable.
Thank you very much. (Applause.)